Recently, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released a Gates Foundation-funded report: Has Universal Access to Transfer-Level Courses Changed Student Outcomes at California Community Colleges? Many positive trends are noted in the report, including completion rates for transfer-level math courses, especially statistics and liberal arts math. The authors also point out that more students are earning their associate’s degree and transferring to four-year institutions. However, two underlying issues identified in this report could undermine these otherwise encouraging headlines: selection bias and grade inflation.

This report brings up the issue of selection bias in footnote #17. It points out that students post-AB 705 are earning a higher overall grade point average (GPA) in their first year in college. The authors go on to state: “This indicates possible selection effects—specifically, that lower-performing students were more likely to stop enrolling, which may explain the improved long-term outcomes.”

If you’re like me and enjoy spending winter break analyzing data from the state Chancellor’s office, then you might be interested in the effects of AB 705 on completion levels in math and English. 

AB 705 was legislation that prohibited, except under very narrow circumstances, colleges from requiring students to enroll in remedial math and English. The logic was that if not enough students were completing transfer-level math and English classes within a one-year timeframe because they were taking remedial classes, then if we eliminate remedial classes they will finish  faster, correct? The main data source is their Management Information Systems Data Mart. I was interested in looking at enrollment trends over the last several years, and, not surprisingly, we see a downward trend in enrollment. Below are the enrollment totals statewide and in General Math (TOP Code 170100) and English (TOP Code 150100)